Gold futures resumed their advance Tuesday after a modest drop in the two previous sessions, supported by safe-haven demand sparked by uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff plans.

“Investors are concerned about the state of the world… so they’re buying gold as an alternative asset because they’re concerned that the U.S. government may throw the world into a global recession,” CPM Group managing partner Jeffrey Christian said.

Trump said this week that not all of his threatened tariffs would be imposed on April 2 and some countries may get breaks, and the Financial Times reported Trump is considering a two-step tariff regime, but most economists expect U.S. tariff policies would hurt economic growth and drive up inflation.

Gold-backed ETFs continue to see big inflows, adding 23 tons of gold on Monday for the biggest one-day increase since 2022, according to data collected by Bloomberg.

The ETFs suffered persistent outflows during the 2022-24 period, as high interest rates made holding cash rather than gold more appealing for Western investors, but the trend has reversed this year, helping support prices.

Front-month Comex gold (XAUUSD:CUR) for March delivery ended +0.3% to $3,023.70/oz, the fourth-highest settlement value YTD, and front-month March silver (XAGUSD:CUR) finished +2.2% to a one-week high $34.002/oz, snapping a four-session losing streak.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:GLD), (NYSEARCA:GDX), (GDXJ), (IAU), (NUGT), (PHYS), (GLDM), (AAAU), (SGOL), (RING), (BAR), (SLV), (PSLV), (SIVR), (SIL), (SILJ)

A ratio of the S&P 500 index in terms of gold has fallen to its lowest level since the COVID pandemic, in a potential warning sign for the U.S. and global economies, according to Aakash Doshi, global head of gold strategy at State Street Global Advisors.

Doshi said the mean ratio between the S&P 500 SPX and gold recently dropped to ~1.9x – the number of ounces of gold it would take to buy the index – compared to 2.3x in December 2024 and a cyclical peak of 2.5x last February.

The sharp turn lower in the S&P 500/gold ratio in March is itself not a recession indicator, Doshi said, but it does “reflect increased investor demand for safe-haven assets such as gold, and a potential reassessment of U.S. growth exceptionalism and corporate earnings optimism.”