Originally published on northernminer.com
Jeffrey Christian on gold, copper and the debasement trade
This week’s episode features Jeffrey Christian, managing partner at CPM Group, in conversation with host Adrian Pocobelli on the state of the current gold bull market.
Christian examines the parallels with the late 1970s and offers insight into China’s expanding influence on global precious metals. He also shares his perspective on copper and what may lie ahead for the metal.
The U.S.–Australia Deal and Price Floors
President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed an $8.5 billion agreement to expand mining and refining of rare earths in Australia. The deal includes price-floor mechanisms—an unusual move that could stabilize supply but raise costs for manufacturers. Both nations see this as essential to compete in high-tech and defense industries that rely on critical minerals.
China’s Controls and Auto Supply Risks
China’s new export restrictions on rare earths and semiconductor materials have rattled automakers. Companies such as General Motors and Toyota warn that chip shortages could disrupt U.S. production within months. With China refining about 85% of global rare earths and nearly all heavy rare earths, Western nations face a real mid-stream bottleneck. Expect major investment in refining and recycling outside China.
Gold’s Record Run and Investor Demand
Gold prices have soared past $4,300 an ounce as investors hedge against geopolitical tension, high debt, and slower growth. Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group noted that the rally reflects a long-term shift in investor behavior—buyers are less sensitive to price and more concerned with preserving value. Central banks remain steady net buyers, showing that gold’s role in global reserves has strengthened.
Copper: The Next Pressure Point
Industry veteran Robert Friedland warns of an approaching copper shortage, predicting demand over the next two decades could equal all production in the past 10,000 years. Copper is essential for electrification, data centers, and defense. Yet, weak investment and permitting delays threaten supply. Analysts see long-term upside, though short-term recessions could create volatility.
Rapid Policy and ESG Shifts
Governments are moving faster. Ontario’s new “one project, one process” framework cuts mine-approval times to two years. The U.S. has started taking minority stakes in key mining companies, while ESG traceability is becoming mandatory. Projects like Greenland’s SMO-certified gold and Australia’s traceable rare-earth programs show how transparency is now a competitive advantage.
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