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Precious Metals Expectations for 2025 - The Post-Election Outlook
November 2024 – Jeffrey Christian, Managing Member of CPM Group joins Sean Brazney, Sales Director at Monex, to review the 2024 Precious Metals Report.
Topics include:
- Post-election market trends
- Key economic uncertainties
- The impact of geopolitical events
Key topics include: • Recent volatility in gold and silver prices • Market outlook for Q1 2025 and beyond • Economic implications of the U.S. election and global events
Market Volatility Post-Election
The precious metals market has experienced significant fluctuations:
- Gold spiked to over $2,800 an ounce but has since retracted by about $250 per ounce.
- Silver surged past $35 an ounce and has decreased by approximately $5 per ounce.
According to Jeffrey Christian, this correction was a much-needed and healthy adjustment. It presents new opportunities for investors looking to buy or accumulate precious metals at more favorable prices. The recent selloff has sparked questions among investors about whether market concerns have diminished post-election and if a prolonged downtrend is imminent.
Uncertainties Remain Despite Election Outcomes
Christian emphasizes that while the election removed a significant set of uncertainties that had been looming over the market, it simultaneously introduced new ones. The markets are currently on “thin ice,” grappling with whether to adopt a bullish or bearish outlook.
He notes that it’s too early to determine the exact implications of:
- A second Trump administration.
- A unified Republican government controlling the presidency, Senate, and House of Representatives.
Key considerations include whether upcoming policies will be contractionary or if they will stimulate further budget deficits, debt growth, and spending—factors that could prolong the current economic expansion.
Global Geopolitical Factors at Play
Beyond domestic politics, several global uncertainties are influencing the precious metals market:
- Russia and the Ukraine War: The ongoing conflict and Russia’s future actions remain unpredictable.
- Middle East Tensions: Escalating situations in the Middle East add to global instability.
- China Relations: Developments in China’s policies and its relationships with other nations are critical.
- Russia-China Relations: Increasing tensions between Russia and China could have significant ramifications.
- North Korea’s Actions: North Korea’s involvement adds another layer of complexity.
In this environment of heightened uncertainty, Christian believes that gold and silver investors will continue to buy into the first quarter of the coming year, pushing prices higher.
