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Silver’s Rapid Ascent: Why Prices Could Touch $50 in the Coming Quarter
A major revision to U.S. payroll data has confirmed what CPM Group has been warning about for months: the U.S. economy has been weaker beneath the surface than headline numbers suggested. With job figures revised downward by more than 900,000 positions, the data now better reflects the underlying economic softness that has been developing over the past year.
For precious metals investors, this matters. A weakening economic base, combined with rising political uncertainty, historically creates tailwinds for gold and silver. As Jeff Christian noted, today’s data revision “reaffirms that things are a lot shakier than we thought,” reinforcing CPM Group’s long-held view that the economic and political environment would deteriorate through 2025–2026.
Silver Surges Past $41 as Investors Reassess the Global Environment
Gold is trading near $3,700, and silver has climbed above $41, continuing the strong upward trend seen throughout the year. CPM Group has long indicated that silver could eventually revisit the $50 level, last seen more than a decade ago. Initially, that forecast was framed as a longer-term possibility.
But conditions have changed.
Fast.
As Christian explained, “As time has progressed, that projection is now this year in the next quarter.” CPM Group would not be surprised to see silver touch $48–$50 per ounce, even if only briefly, within the next three months.
Should Investors Be Buying Silver at $41–$42
Many long-time silver investors still carry psychological scars from past price spikes. Silver’s history includes rapid climbs, sharp reversals, and extended periods of sideways trading. Following recent gains, a wave of physical selling occurred between $38 and $42, reflecting hesitation among investors who have lived through prior peaks.
So the natural question is:
Is $41–$42 still an attractive price to buy?
According to Christian, the answer depends on the investor’s strategy.
For those with exceptionally low cost bases, the idea of buying at $41 may feel counterintuitive.
But for new buyers or those interested in tactical positioning, $41–$42 can still be a compelling entry point if they expect a move to $48–$50 in the near term.
A gain of 15–20% over just a few months is meaningful—especially in today’s volatile investment landscape.
How Silver Investors React in Price Spikes
1. The Long-Term Holder
This investor bought years ago—perhaps at $10, or even at $40—and believes the price will continue rising. If silver falls back, they are content waiting years for the next upswing.
2. The Profit-Taker
This investor sells into strength, expecting to buy back at lower levels. Historically, this has often worked well in silver, which tends to spike and retrace before stabilizing.
3. The Holder Who Hedges
This investor does not want to sell physical silver—but uses futures or other financial tools to hedge against short-term pullbacks. They capture the benefit of a correction without relinquishing long-term metal holdings.
In recent months, CPM Group has seen a shift:
More investors are choosing to hold, and fewer are selling.
Not because the price is low—but because the world is changing faster than expected.
The Key Driver: A Weakening Global Environment
Many investors had previously planned to sell at $45–$50, anticipating a price spike driven by economic and political stress. But as Christian explains, the environment is not merely fulfilling those expectations—it’s deteriorating faster than anticipated.
Investors now question whether a spike to $50 would represent a peak or merely a waypoint on the way to even higher prices later. As a result:
Fewer investors are selling into the $40s
More are waiting
Some are beginning to re-enter the market on dips
This behavioral shift is tightening the physical market and creating conditions that support further price strength.
