This 11-page report discusses the realities of the energy transition, and outlines numerous issues that already are delaying the pace of transition to new motive propulsion technologies, including electric and hybrid vehicles. The contents are excerpted from a long presentation CPM made in September during a road show to institutional investors in South Africa.

CPM’s analysts have followed the energy markets as well as the PGM markets since the 1970s, including writing a newsletter and book on electric vehicles in that decade. Our projections for automotive production and sales, the changing composition of the mix of motive propulsion technologies, PGM demand in the auto sector and related factors have extended to 2050, reflecting the long transition that will take place. Over the next three decades there will be fierce competition among petrol, diesel, BEV, PHEV, HEV, Fuel Cell, hydrogen engines, and other technologies in propulsion technologies.

This Market Alert summarizes CPM’s conclusions related to the long-term trends in energy sources, automotive demand for PGMs, and obstacles likely to continue to limit the use of platinum in fuel cell powered road transportation.