The Fundamentals of Silver and Copper Markets

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Silver Market Summary:

The amount of silver held in London bullion market inventories has declined significantly from 2016-2020 levels. This is largely due to Indian banks and trading companies buying up large amounts of silver from London and exporting it to meet industrial demand in India and other countries.

While some have claimed there is a global silver shortage, Christian discusses that in reality, Inventories remain near record highs globally once unreported stocks in countries like India and China are accounted for. The loci of silver inventories has simply shifted from weaker hands in London to stronger hands in Asia. Major holders include investors, industrial consumers, and fabricators in India and China.

Registered COMEX silver stocks are far below early 2020 levels but are around long-term normal levels of 25-35 million ounces. He believes the decline reflects investors moving their silver from London to New York in recent years, not an actual supply shortage.

Copper Market Summary:

Today’s relatively tight copper market reflects stronger than expected economic activity rather than physical shortages. Many forecasters had incorrectly predicted the global economy would be in recession by now. This surprise resilience, especially in China, has kept copper demand high.

Looking ahead 2-3 years, we expects rising mine supply to catch up and overtake demand, helped by an eventual recession curtailing consumption. This should lead to a period of oversupply and price weakness.

Longer term, the electrification trend will require substantial new copper mine supply. The energy transition will be gradual, not abrupt. While optimistic about copper’s outlook, CPM believes some of the extremely bullish forecasts for prices above $10/lb are premature.

This is an excerpt from an interview Jeffrey Christian gave to the Northern Miner. To listen to the 2 hour+ Interview, click the link below. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUfiaMoykbo&ab_channel=TheNorthernMiner

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